Track record
How accurate is Pareto at predicting life events?
Learning in progress. We publish a scored track record only once it clears our calibration bar — not before.
We publish a scored track record only once it clears our calibration bar.
- Resolved predictions0 — needs 30
- Accuracy0% — needs 60%
Why there are no numbers here yet
Pareto scores every resolved life events prediction against what actually happened. Until the record clears 80% accuracy at a low calibration error over a large enough sample, we show progress instead of a score. A number published too early is a marketing claim, not evidence.
Methodology
Every prediction is recorded with an explicit probability before its outcome is known. When the event resolves, the forecast is scored against reality and written to an aggregate-only ledger that holds no user reference — predictions are keyed by a salted hash, never by account. Figures on this page are aggregate and redacted: per-domain rows covering fewer than ten resolved predictions are folded into "other" or withheld entirely, so no individual household's predicted life event is ever identifiable. Nothing here is investment advice.